Nov 2

11/2/2010 1:21 PM 

I was struck by the opening remarks by Elizabeth M. King, Director at The World Bank, who started our Symposium by presenting data on how various world economies will be shifting between now and 2050.  An recent (2008) Pricewaterhouse Cooper report projects the E7 emerging economies will by 2050 around 50% larger than the current G7 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada).

[Click here for chart]
 
China is expected to overtake the US as the largest economy in around 2025 in these updated projections, while India is now assessed as having the potential nearly to catch up with the US by 2050.

The Brazilian economy could be larger than the Japanese economy by 2050;

The Russian, Mexican and Indonesian economies could be larger than the German, French or UK economies by 2050; and

The Turkish economy could be of similar size to the Italian economy by 2050.

China is projected to remain the fastest growing BRIC economy for the next few years, but is gradually overtaken in terms of growth rates (although not levels of GDP) by India in around 2015 and Brazil in around 2025. The decelerating growth profile in China reflects factors such as China’s rapidly ageing population (the same factor accounts for the marked deceleration in projected growth in Russia over the next 20 years). In contrast, the much younger and faster growing Indian and Brazilian populations are able to sustain a more stable rate of growth up to around 2030, although after that they too experience a gradual deceleration as their populations also begin to age.

So, what does this mean for US and most OECD countries?  We better wake up and focus on preparing our kids with the skills they need to succeed today and tomorrow.  If we don’t, the good life we have become used to will no longer be in the reach of our children.

I’ll conclude with what some global leaders have to say about the role of education in economic growth:

“Education is the only means to sever the vicious cycle of poverty. The best welfare is to dole out opportunities for education and jobs. My only wish is to encourage those who have difficulties in educating their children and help the educated children land a job.“  President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea, 2009

“The education cause must be treated as a strategic mission and priority in the country's overall development plan. “ President Hu Jintao of China, July 2010

“Even as we focus on speeding up our economic recovery, we also know that when it comes to jobs, opportunity, and prosperity in the 21st century, nothing is more important than the quality of our education. At a time when most of the new jobs being created will require some kind of higher education; when countries that out-educate us today will out-compete us tomorrow, giving our kids the best education possible is an economic imperative.”  President Barack Obama, October 9, 2010 Weekly Address

 

So, are we ready?